Two leading analysts for Rystad Energy, Espen Erlingsen and Audun Martinsen, cited Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia as the three growth nations in the Middle East oil market, and predicted a gradual increase in oil prices over the coming years
Speaking at a client briefing session in London, Erlingsen, Rystad Energy’s VP Analysis, said the lifting of sanctions on Iran will do much to improve its oil revenue prospects in the coming years and a “comeback is expected”, while steady growth is predicted for Iraq, despite instability created by ongoing conflict in the region and a fall in the level of investment. Erlingsen said this has created a “cashflow situation” with the government less able to reimburse E&P companies, but this has been balanced by relatively strong production growth.
Erlington argued that although Saudi Arabia has created a glut of oil with supply outstripping demand and contributing to falling oil prices, Saudi Aramco’s In-Kingdom Total Value Add (IKTVA) programme, a massive investment scheme for increased local content, should prove to be a positive move.
Martinsen, a Rystad Energy senior analyst, predicted that by 2017, oil prices will be up to US$80 per barrel. He also named Egypt as a force for growth in offshore hydrocarbons investment in the coming years. The Zohr offshore natural gas field is expected to be productive by 2017, a year earlier than originally envisaged.